STATELINE COOPERATIVE’S AFTERNOON COMMENTS FEBRUARY 2nd

Corn North Burt: down 6 @ $ 6.85

The corn market faltered on strength in the US$ along with a continuation of technical selling. There are mixed ideas about the size of the SA crop. The trade awaits possible production cuts in next week’s USDA S&D report. Weekly export sales were decent this week but did little to move the corn market out of its recent trading range. We need something more for the corn market to react to.

• Closes: March 5 ¾ cents lower at $6.75 ¼, May 5 ¾ cents lower at $6.73 ¾, July 5 cents lower at $6.63, September 1 ¾ cents lower at $6.09, December 1 ¼ cents lower at $5.95 ($5.98 was the high).
• Gulf premiums were unchanged for Feb/Mar. Processor bids were mostly unchanged. Ethanol bids were 4 cents firmer to 2 cents weaker.
• Weekly export sales were reported at 1.8 mmt. Top destinations were Unknown, Mexico, and China.
• Algeria was thought to have purchased around 30k tonnes of Argentina corn for feedstuffs.
• Spreads: H/K 1 ½ inverse…. K/N 10 ½ inverse……N/U 54 ¼ inverse….N/Z 68 ¼ inverse……Z/Z 40 ¾ inverse.

 Soybean: up 14 @ $14.94

The soybean market traded higher with soymeal making new contract highs. Focus remains on weather outlooks for SA. Trade awaits next week’s USDA S&D report for additional cuts to Argentina and possible cuts to Brazil’s soybean crop. March soymeal made a new contract high of $493.60 on supply concerns.

• Closes: March 14 cents higher at $15.34 ¼, May 11 ¼ cents higher at $15.27 ¾, July 10 ½ cents higher at $15.18 ½, November 10 ¼ cents higher at $13.70 ½.
• Gulf premiums were unchanged for Feb/Mar. Processor bids were anywhere from 10 cents firmer to 15 cents weaker.
• The products were firmer with meal 7-8 bucks higher and oil 15 points higher.
• Weekly export sales were reported at 928 tmt for beans, 170 tmt for meal and 1 tmt for soyoil. Top destination in the beans was China at 782 tmt. Top destinations for meal were United Kingdom, Panama, Morocco, Columbia, and Canada. Top destination for soyoil was Mexico.
• Canola closed 2-3 bucks lower on a bout of profit taking after several days of higher prices. Canada’s canola stocks are estimated to be 11.7 mmt as of Dec 31. This compares to 8.8 mmt same time last year.

Spreads: H/K 6 ¾ inverse……K/N 9 ¼ inverse……. N/X 148 ½ inverse.

 STATELINE COOPERATIVE’S AFTERNOON COMMENTS DECEMBER 13th

Corn North Burt: down 1 @ $ 6.73

The corn market traded higher early morning on US$ weakness and uncertainties about continued Ukraine’s shipment. Prices dipped midday on technical selling after March failed to hold at or above its 20-Day MA of $6.58. The March closed midway between its 10-Day MA of $6.49 and its 20-Day MA of $6.58. The Dec 23 contract closed below its 10-Day MA of $5.97. The oats market closed unchanged at $3.40 ¾.

• Closes: March ½ cent lower at $6.53 ½, The May closed ½ cent lower at $6.53 ½, July closed unchanged at $6.48 ½, September closed 1 ½ cents lower at $6.09 ¼, December closed 1 cent lower at $5.96.
• Gulf premiums were mostly unchanged again today.
• Brazil corn exports pegged at 6.7 mmt for December. This compares to 5.43 forecasted last week.
• Spreads: H/K even money……K/N 5 ¼ carry……N/Z 52 inverse.

 Soybean: up 19 @ $14.59

The soybean market traded higher on decent demand for US soybeans and bouts of fund buying after recent weakness. Prices drew additional support from US$ weakness, the rally I the soyoil market, and forecasts suggesting more rain events for Brazil and Argentina.

• Closes: January closed 19 ¼ cents higher at $14.79 ¾, March 19 cents higher at $14.84 ½, May 18 cents higher at $14.88 ¾, July 17 ¾ cents higher at $14.91 ¾, November 8 ¾ cents higher at $13.91 ¾.
• The products were stronger with meal 2-3 bucks higher and oil 192 points higher.
• The USDA announced the sale of 140k tonnes of soybeans to Unknown for the 2023/24 marketing year.
• The canola market took to higher levels in sympathy from the crude oil and soyoil markets. Prices drew additional support from lack of farmer selling.
• Spreads: F/H 4 ¼ carry……F/K 8 ½ carry, N/X 99 ½ inverse.

STATELINE COOPERATIVE’S AFTERNOON COMMENTS

Markets were steady with corn slightly higher, soybeans higher, and wheat slightly lower.  The trade remains very thin with algos leading the pack.  There was some evening-up due to the holiday next week and many traders are out mid-week forward. 

Corn North Burt: steady @ $ 6.82

Corn closed slightly higher on the nearby contracts on a slow news day. 

• Close: Dec. 22 at 6.67 ¾, up ¼, Mar. 23 at 6.70, up 1, July 23 at 6.62 ½, up 1.
• Weekly price change: Dec 22 up 9 ¾.
• Spreads: Z/H 2 ¼ cents carry, Z/K ¼ cents carry, Z/N 5 ¼ cents inverse.

 Soybean: down 12 @ $13.82

Soybean futures were higher on strong meal and strong soy oil trade. 

• Close: Jan. 23 at 14.28 ¼, up 11 ¼, Mar. 23 at 14.33 ¼, up 11, July 23 at 14.42 ¼, up 11 ½.
• Soybean oil was higher – December at 72.74 up 0.61.
• Soybean Meal was higher – December at 410.4 up 4.7.
• Weekly price change: Jan. 23. soybeans dn 21 ¾.
• Spreads: F/H 5 cent carry, F/K 11 ½ cent carry, F/N 14 cent carry.

  If you have questions or just want to talk to someone about grain call any of our Grain Origination Team members: Jeff Rahe 515-924-3892, Greg Matheson 712-868-3150 If you would like to see a complete listing of SLC grain prices, please click on the following web site. www.statelinecoop.com. This data and these comments are provided for information -mail service, click on reply and type unsubscribe. Although all information is believed to be reliable, we cannot guarantee its accuracy and completeness. Commodity trading involves risks, and you should fully understand those risks before trading. Some comments are the opinion of this author and not the opinion of Stateline Cooperative.

STATELINE COOPERATIVE’S AFTERNOON COMMENTS OCTOBER 12th

Corn North Burt: steady @ $ 6.73

December corn touched $7 right after the USDA report was released, but then declined to be 13 cents lower; at the close it ended the session unchanged. 

• The corn yield in today’s report was lowered .6 bushels to 171.9 bu/acre; combined with a 148mbu lower carryin our supply was lowered 172mbu.  But demand was lowered 125mbu so a carryout of 1.172bil bu was larger than expected.
• Closes: December unchanged at $6.93, March down ¼ cent at $7.00      
• Spreads: Z/H 7 cent carry, H/K ¾ cent carry.

 Soybean: up 20 @ $13.41

November soybeans traded as much as 37 ¾ cents higher after the release of the report, but ended the session 19 ¾ cents higher.  Both oil and meal also closed higher on the day.   

• Soybean yield was lowered .7bu to 49.8 bu/acre; but a larger carryin equated to a 31mbu drop in supply.  Demand also had a decline of 31mbu which left the carryout unchanged from last month, better than traders expected.
• Argentine farmers sold a record 13.7mmt of soybeans in September, when their government offered a special currency exchange rate for selling them, according to the U.S. Ag Attache there.
• USDA announced this morning a sale of 526tmt soybeans to China for 2022/2023.
• China’s November futures were up 38 ¾ cents/bu last night to a new contract high.
• Closes: November up 19 ¾ cents at $13.96, January up 17 cents at $14.05
• Spreads: X/F 8 ¾ cent carry, X/N 25 ½ cent carry.

STATELINE COOPERATIVE’S AFTERNOON COMMENTS

Corn North Burt: down 3 @ $ 7.43

Futures traded in 13-16 cent ranges and closed a few cents lower across the board with lack of support from wheat and overall, a quiet day ahead of the WASDE on Monday. Corn appears to be a follower with little fresh news to trade. The first ethanol report of the new crop year showed production down 19k bpd to 989,000 bpd, inventories down .4 million barrels to 23.1 million barrels, and net margins down 15 cents to net positive 6 cents.

• CONAB updated their estimate for the 2021/22 total corn crop to 113.272 MMT vs 114.691 previously. Their updated export estimate for corn is at 37 MMT vs. 37.5 previously.
• Closes: December 22 down 2’4 at 668’4, March 23 down 2’4 at 673’2, May 23 down 2’2 at 674’4, and December 23 down 2’4 at 617’4.
• Spreads: Z/H steady at 4’6 carry, Z/K steady at 5’6 carry, Z/N steady at 1’2 carry.

 Soybean: up 3 @ $13.96

Soybeans ended the day higher across the board with some support from soybean oil, meal ended the day lower, and board crush values mixed. According to the Rosario Grain Exchange, Argentine farmers sold 3.1 MMT of soybeans from Monday-Wednesday, nearly 5 times more than last week. Due to this, China is reported to be buying up cargoes from Argentina as they have the cheapest supply right now, the U.S. is reported to be competitive later this year, and then Brazil getting some attention early next year.

• CONAB updated their estimate of 2021/22 soybean crop to 125.552 MMT vs. 124.048 previously.
• Closes: November 22 up 2’4 at 1386’0, January 23 up 2’4 at 1391’2, March 23 up 2’6 at 1493’6, and November 23 up 1’0 at 1331’2.
• December product closes: soybean oil up 113 at 63.23, meal down 4.6 at 405.9, and board crush down 2 at 203.0
• Spreads: X/F stronger at 5’0 carry, X/H steady at 8’4 carry, and X/K down at 12’0 carry.

  If you have questions or just want to talk to someone about grain call any of our Grain Origination Team members: Jeff Rahe 515-924-3892, Greg Matheson 712-868-3150 If you would like to see a complete listing of SLC grain prices, please click on the following web site. www.statelinecoop.com. This data and these comments are provided for information -mail service, click on reply and type unsubscribe. Although all information is believed to be reliable, we cannot guarantee its accuracy and completeness. Commodity trading involves risks, and you should fully understand those risks before trading. Some comments are the opinion of this author and not the opinion of Stateline Cooperative.

STATELINE COOPERATIVE’S AFTERNOON COMMENTS SEPTEMBER 8th

Corn North Burt: down 3 @ $ 7.43

Futures traded in 13-16 cent ranges and closed a few cents lower across the board with lack of support from wheat and overall, a quiet day ahead of the WASDE on Monday. Corn appears to be a follower with little fresh news to trade. The first ethanol report of the new crop year showed production down 19k bpd to 989,000 bpd, inventories down .4 million barrels to 23.1 million barrels, and net margins down 15 cents to net positive 6 cents.

• CONAB updated their estimate for the 2021/22 total corn crop to 113.272 MMT vs 114.691 previously. Their updated export estimate for corn is at 37 MMT vs. 37.5 previously.
• Closes: December 22 down 2’4 at 668’4, March 23 down 2’4 at 673’2, May 23 down 2’2 at 674’4, and December 23 down 2’4 at 617’4.
• Spreads: Z/H steady at 4’6 carry, Z/K steady at 5’6 carry, Z/N steady at 1’2 carry.

 Soybean: up 3 @ $13.96

Soybeans ended the day higher across the board with some support from soybean oil, meal ended the day lower, and board crush values mixed. According to the Rosario Grain Exchange, Argentine farmers sold 3.1 MMT of soybeans from Monday-Wednesday, nearly 5 times more than last week. Due to this, China is reported to be buying up cargoes from Argentina as they have the cheapest supply right now, the U.S. is reported to be competitive later this year, and then Brazil getting some attention early next year.

• CONAB updated their estimate of 2021/22 soybean crop to 125.552 MMT vs. 124.048 previously.
• Closes: November 22 up 2’4 at 1386’0, January 23 up 2’4 at 1391’2, March 23 up 2’6 at 1493’6, and November 23 up 1’0 at 1331’2.
• December product closes: soybean oil up 113 at 63.23, meal down 4.6 at 405.9, and board crush down 2 at 203.0
• Spreads: X/F stronger at 5’0 carry, X/H steady at 8’4 carry, and X/K down at 12’0 carry.

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